Brazil Loses Investment Grade Rating from Risk Agency Standard & Poor’s

Brazil Loses Investment Grade Rating from Risk Agency Standard & Poor’s

TONI SCIARETTA
RAQUEL LANDIM
FROM SÃO PAULO

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Having previously threatened to do so, the risk classification agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has downgraded Brazil, meaning the country loses its investment-grade credit rating.

The agency argued that the submission of a budget deficit to Congress reflected “lack of ability” and “will”.

S&P, which has criticized congressmen and senators for obstructing Brazil’s process of fiscal adjustment, also questioned the cohesion of the government and its commitment to shoring up public finances.

The decision to downgrade, which means Brazil is now classified as being at high risk of defaulting on its debts, had been expected for next year. The agencies had given Finance Minister Joaquim Levy a chance to implement his reforms. However, the budget deficit accelerated the process.

S&P also signaled that there could be further downgrading to come, saying that there is “more than a one in three chance” of the situation deteriorating further.

This is because of political difficulties in Congress, and the risk that lawmakers may approve measures that put further strain on public finances.

The agency also expressed concern with Levy’s weakened position, saying that it feared “an increased lack of cohesion” in President Rousseff’s team.

Brazil’s credit rating was downgraded from BBB- to BB+, the same rating as Russia, which has been suffering from an international embargo due to the war in the Crimea, and has been badly hit by the fall in oil prices.

Brazil retains its investment grade rating with the agencies Moody’s and Fitch. With Moody’s, Brazil’s rating is Baa3 – just one rating away from losing investment grade status. With Fitch, the situation is a little more comfortable. Brazil has a BBB rating, two grades away from a junk rating.

S&P was the first risk classification agency to award Brazil investment grade status, in April 2008, during Lula’s second term. Fitch and Moody’s did likewise in May 2008 and September 2009, respectively.

Investment grade status, which is recognition that the country is a safe bet for investors, is typically required by billion-dollar investment and pension funds for investment in government debt securities.

Normally, they require investment grade status from at least two of the big agencies. In other words, a mass exodus from Brazil would only happen after a decision from Moody’s or Fitch to downgrade Brazil to junk status.

THE OTHER AGENCIES

The decision of S&P comes less than a month after Moody’s downgraded Brazil to Baa3 – the lowest classification for investment grade status. However, prospects have been assessed as stable for the time being.

Brazil is two classifications away from junk status with Fitch, but the agency has indicated that it will revise the country’s rating shortly.

Translated by TOM GATEHOUSE

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